European traders have come back to their desks after the weekend facing a sea of red once more. Anything deemed to contain an element of high risk is getting sold off amid a further flight to safety. Sentiment has dived once more amid reports of western allies discussing the potential for a Russian oil embargo. The oi price has subsequently surged higher once more as are volatility levels amid surging fear gauges.
European assets are being particularly hit, with the DAX once more the big underperformer, whilst the EUR falls ever further. Gold has hit $2000 this morning too as precious metals continue to find a safe haven bid.
It is a quiet day for data traders, with little on the economic calendar aside from Eurozone Investor Confidence. This will be of little consequence for markets as traders focus on the geopolitical bigger picture.
TODAY’S NEWS
Sentiment continues to dive: Fears over the spiking higher of the oil price is driving safe-haven flows
Treasury yields are lower again: Investors are buying US Treasuries despite the inflationary fears.
US and western allies discuss an oil embargo: Further sanctions are being considered and banning the purchase of Russian oil. This is another huge step up in the attempts to force Russia to stop the war in Ukraine. [Risk negative]
Commodities higher: Copper is now at all-time highs, precious metals continue to climb
Commodity currencies stronger: AUD and NZD continue to outperform as commodity prices continue to soar.
Cryptocurrency prices falling again: Bitcoin has fallen back to $38,000
Economic Data:
- No major data releases today
MAJOR MARKETS OUTLOOK
Broad outlook: Sentiment is negative once more across asset classes.
Forex: Once more EUR remains the main underperformer with GBP and CHF also struggling. AUD and NZD are the big outperforming currencies.
- EUR/USD has struggled to find any support in recent sessions and continues to dive even lower. A move back below 1.08 is likely now, with the next real support not until 1.0725/1.0765. Momentum is now very oversold but for now, the sell-off continues. Initial resistance for a technical rally is around 1.1000/1.1050.
- GBP/USD continues to fall and is now breaking the key support of the December low at 1.3160. A close below 1.3160 opens the way towards 1.2675/1.2850. Initial resistance is now 1.3250/1.3270.
- AUD/USD has continued to drive higher in recent sessions and intraday weakness is seen as a chance to buy. The next resistance is at 0.7440 and then 0.7470. Initial support is at 0.7350/0.7380.
Commodities: Safe haven flows are seeing precious metals sharply higher as the oil price soars again.
- Gold has hit levels above $2000 this morning and is on course towards the all-time high again which saw $2075 back in August 2020. Momentum being extremely overbought is the one main caveat but the price is not stopping for now as even intraday weakness is a chance to buy. Initial support at $1974 is now a gauge.
- Silver closed decisively above $25.40 to move the price to new 8 month highs. It has opened the way for further gains with $26.50 the next basis of resistance. With the strength of the 4-week uptrend, near-term unwinding moves are still a chance to buy. There is good initial support at $24.90/$25.60.
- Brent Crude oil has fundamental drivers pulling the price sharply higher this morning. A spike hit $140 earlier but has since moderated back slightly. There is a gap open at $122.20 which will be filled at some stage, but it is difficult to say whether there will be further gains before then. Initial support is $127.85.
Indices: Wall Street continues to outperform the struggling European indices.
- S&P 500 futures selling has been relatively contained however the price has still come back to test the support band of the near-term lows between 4227/4275. A close below 4227 would re-open the 4101 key low. Initial resistance is at 4336with 4418 strengthening.
- DAX selling pressure continues with the market below 13,000. With more and more supports failing, there is no real support until 11,320, which was the October 2020 key higher low. There is an opening gap lower yet to be filled at 12,963.
- FTSE 100 has broken the next key support at 6977 (November 2021 low) has continued lower this morning. The next support is at 6620. Daily momentum is oversold, but catching a falling knife is very risky. Initial resistance is at 6946/6977.
