Data this week
This week is big on data. From the CPI and FOMC meeting out of the US, to the ECB & BoJ policy statements - markets will certainly be watching.
- CPI data out of the US on Tuesday - will this halt the recent equity rally?
- FOMC projections and Press Conference to be held on Wednesday
- Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims on Thursday
- BoJ Policy Statement scheduled on Friday
SEC vs Crypto
Last week saw the SEC filing a lawsuit against the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges: Binance and Coinbase. The reason behind this harsh move was the violation of federal securities laws from both exchanges.
However, we now find the markets going back to that same old question - is this just more of the old SEC fighting talk, or will it be different this time around?
According to JP Morgan, the "moves are creating more urgency for US lawmakers to come up with a comprehensive regulatory framework this year".
If the SEC's stance is confirmed by lawmakers; Coinbase, Binance.US, as well as other U.S. exchanges would have to register as brokers, and most cryptocurrencies would be treated as securities, the note said.
The news deeply affected the crypto market, as we saw some big drops across the board over the weekend.
Although no major flush occurred as we have seen in the past, price has come to technical levels. The supporting price of the range at 25300 held firm, for now.
We can't really see a bottom yet, but we can definitely expect more news to create panic sells.
Tip from our analyst: I personally have alerts set for $22,000 and $20,000.
Usual rules will apply, I will be waiting to see buyers step in before taking any buys - a classic fake out trap for sellers.
Oil & OPEC+
WTI continues to slide after OPEC+ latest meeting, with Saudi oil production cutting 1mln bpd as of June 4th.
We initially saw a spike, but all gains have been erased and price is slumping back to major support at $66.
Many factors are currently weighing on the oil price:
- Fears of a US recession
- The lack of upbeat data from China
The next two days will be of huge importance to Oil traders, with US price being issued on the latest CPI print, accompanied by both ECB and FOMC policy decisions.
Data is pointing that retail traders are net long in oil with just shy of 86% of the crowd long. This does not paint a pretty picture for oil, as we know that retail traders are usually on the wrong side of the market most of the time.
Watch $66 - will price hold firm or are we going to see a slide towards $62?
We will be waiting for the news coming out of the US tomorrow, and what implications we could see in the markets on either positive or negative data.
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